Thu, Jan 16, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 26 | 17 | 523 |
| CGY | 08 | 03 | 211 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01WPGBryan LittleAssists: Michael Frolik, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 8:11WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Olli Jokinen, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 9:09WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 17:31WPGOlli JokinenPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 0:40CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Paul Byron, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 2:57WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 11:59CGYLance BoumaAssists: Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:38WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:38CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:19WPGZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:31CGYJoe Colborne: Holding2 min
- P2 5:43WPGAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P2 9:41CGYBrian McGrattan: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:05CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:36WPGOlli Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:25CGYDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 15:58CGYLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik10:26
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Wheeler – Scheifele10:11
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Peluso – O'Dell – Wright6:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian10:47
xG 0.31–0.06 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba11:00
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Pardy – Ellerby4:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaliardi – Backlund – Colborne3:03
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Byron3:05
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Westgarth – Colborne – Monahan2:22
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Byron – Monahan4:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Smid – Brodie2:23
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – O'Brien10:50
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Smid – Butler13:00
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).