Fri, Jan 17, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 17 | 08 | 127 |
| CBJ | 213 | 110 | 213 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:08CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:08CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 1:44CBJRyan JohansenAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 8:53WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Martin Erat, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 1:08CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Nathan Horton, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 4:24CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Murray, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:48CBJCorey Tropp: Charging2 min
- P1 10:48WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:12WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:22CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:39WSHMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:03CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:46CBJMatt Calvert: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:41WSHMike Green: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21WSHAlex Ovechkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:22CBJMatt Calvert: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:22WSHConnor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:22CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Beagle – Wilson4:01
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson3:44
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Grabovski – Johansson2:20
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Grabovski5:47
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carrick9:23
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner2:45
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Erskine – Orlov2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:18
xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen8:47
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp6:55
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner10:08
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray13:06
xG 0.90–0.28 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Johnson – Prout12:51
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard13:55
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).