Sat, Jan 18, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 18 | 15 | 01 | 222 |
| WPG | 011 | 013 | 213 | 12 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:59EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 5:48WPGJacob TroubaSHAssists: Bryan Little · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 10:37WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Eric O'Dell · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 18:00EDMDavid PerronAssists: Jeff Petry, Sam Gagner · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 1:10WPGJacob TroubaGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:55WPGMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:05EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P1 15:01EDMTaylor Hall: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:40WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:44WPGEric O'Dell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00EDMJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:01WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:26EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:26WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:22WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gagner – Perron7:52
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Smyth – Hendricks – Gordon4:58
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Arcobello2:33
xG 0.00–0.59 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:15
xG 0.35–0.98 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Belov2:31
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Petry – Marincin13:58
xG 0.79–0.73 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz14:03
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPeluso – O'Dell – Wright3:05
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – O'Dell – Scheifele4:15
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik9:56
xG 1.01–0.79 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Wheeler – Scheifele5:50
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian9:38
xG 1.09–0.43 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Pardy – Ellerby2:39
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Trouba2:02
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).