Sat, Jan 18, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 214 | 114 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 435 |
| BUF | 26 | 013 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59BUFTyler MyersAssists: Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:19CBJDavid SavardAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 6:47BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 12:44CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Brandon Dubinsky · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 11:21CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:35BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 2. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. CBJ Mark Letestu stopped
- 5. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 6. CBJ Ryan Johansen scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:43BUFTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:38CBJDalton Prout: Interference2 min
- P2 11:03BUFZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45CBJNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:05CBJNathan Horton: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:23CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen13:15
xG 0.78–0.04 (95%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson10:06
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner10:36
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp8:30
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray14:29
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 20–10goals 0–2
- Johnson – Prout16:23
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Savard14:28
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Ennis13:43
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott3:48
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Flynn – Girgensons10:01
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Ott – Ellis – Hodgson4:03
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain2:12
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Myers13:52
xG 0.47–0.54 (47%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Pysyk15:45
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).