Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 114 | 110 | 333 |
| TOR | 112 | 210 | 28 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49TORCody FransonAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:29MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:11TORPhil KesselAssists: Mason Raymond · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:47TORMason RaymondPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 19:48MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 9:06MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:27TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 19:56TORJoffrey LupulENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:23MTLNathan Beaulieu: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:40TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23TORTroy Bodie: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:23MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:44TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:20MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:34TORTyler Bozak: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Bournival5:35
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec6:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:56
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Brière – Prust – Bournival3:45
xG 0.02–0.15 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban3:28
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Markov2:45
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Subban – Beaulieu3:21
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:37
xG 0.83–0.65 (56%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri14:36
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- McClement – Raymond – Holland2:09
xG 0.01–0.02 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland5:42
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:57
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Gleason – Franson15:09
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly11:49
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).