Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 212 | 215 | 02 | 429 |
| PHI | 28 | 110 | 314 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 11:54NYICal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Frans Nielsen, Brian Strait · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 14:43PHIAndrej MeszarosUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:38PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 3:45PHIAdam HallAssists: Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 11:05NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 14:00NYIBrian StraitAssists: Michael Grabner, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 7:14PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 15:45PHIMichael RafflGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 19:04PHIMatt ReadENAssists: Sean Couturier, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:36NYIEric Boulton: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:24NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:13NYIMatt Donovan: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:04NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:04PHISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:04PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:19PHIAndrej Meszaros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Martin – Cizikas4:55
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Bailey10:23
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- McDonald – Grabner – Cizikas2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McDonald – Grabner – Nelson8:00
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Hickey9:55
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald19:43
xG 0.19–0.58 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Donovan – de Haan15:40
xG 0.75–1.24 (38%)attempts 16–25goals 2–4
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl7:55
xG 1.04–0.08 (92%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier7:54
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Giroux – Voracek4:21
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn11:33
xG 1.14–0.33 (78%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:27
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Meszaros – Schenn12:53
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).