Sat, Jan 18, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 115 | 111 | 239 |
| CAR | 015 | 111 | 213 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:37CARRiley NashAssists: Radek Dvorak · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 15:05FLAMarcel GocAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Tom Gilbert · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 2:31CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 8:57CARAlexander SeminSHGWGAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 14:21FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Tomas Kopecky · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:22FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P1 8:27FLAEd Jovanovski: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:03CARJiri Tlusty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:28CARRadek Dvorak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:12CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:59CARNathan Gerbe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Barkov13:31
xG 1.55–0.50 (76%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Huberdeau6:44
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad7:37
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Barch – Matthias – Shore4:30
xG 0.01–0.03 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov11:55
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson7:37
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Gilbert15:11
xG 1.06–0.86 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Nash6:31
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Skinner – Lindholm9:32
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty8:46
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:48
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Liles15:34
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Komisarek – Harrison10:48
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Sekera – Faulk15:06
xG 0.92–1.43 (39%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).