Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 28 | 05 | 321 |
| STL | 07 | 012 | 217 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Mark Fistric · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 2:27ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 9:13ANACam FowlerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 9:12STLBarret JackmanAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 14:31STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:12STLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 4:29STLBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:59ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:20STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38ANATim Jackman: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:09STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 12:55ANABryan Allen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Cogliano – Palmieri7:53
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Silfverberg8:08
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Jackman – Winnik – Maroon6:44
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner12:44
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Fistric14:30
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:23
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:44
xG 0.36–0.62 (37%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Reaves – Paajarvi3:58
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz4:59
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Tarasenko5:01
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:12
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole11:33
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:37
xG 0.62–0.71 (46%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:49
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).