Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 113 | 111 | 02 | 235 |
| MIN | 13 | 16 | 08 | 12 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11MINErik HaulaUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:57DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 14:09MINRyan SuterAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Jonas Brodin · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 9:32DALAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–2
- OT 2:42MINNate ProsserGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:48MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:26DALShawn Horcoff: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:50MINJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:52MINTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:52DALRyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:51DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:49MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Fiddler – Garbutt8:48
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 17–4goals 1–1
- Whitney – Horcoff – Jeffrey10:52
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Peverley – Roussel – Seguin3:16
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin6:16
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon16:23
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome12:36
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Benn13:47
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine9:44
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle9:35
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter12:53
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula8:16
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:36
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Ballard – Suter2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser14:13
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).