Sun, Jan 19, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 38 | 211 | 05 | 524 |
| CAR | 017 | 217 | 117 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09TBLMark BarberioPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 7:32TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Martin St. Louis, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 15:07TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tom Pyatt, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 0:24TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 1:46CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 5:40CAREric StaalUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 8:12TBLMark BarberioAssists: Eric Brewer, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 6:14CARRon HainseyAssists: John-Michael Liles, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:42CARRiley Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27TBLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:49TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:15TBLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07CARAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:23TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:34TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:25
xG 0.87–0.57 (60%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Pyatt2:05
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Filppula – Purcell – Killorn11:16
xG 0.79–1.00 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown7:54
xG 0.15–0.47 (25%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Barberio3:42
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas2:23
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cote – Carle2:12
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Skinner – Lindholm6:14
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal10:19
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Malhotra – Skinner – Lindholm2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:59
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 21–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Harrison10:01
xG 1.10–0.16 (88%)attempts 24–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles15:32
xG 1.07–0.15 (88%)attempts 24–11goals 2–0
- Sekera – Faulk16:09
xG 0.89–1.72 (34%)attempts 21–18goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).