Mon, Jan 20, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 39 | 03 | 03 | 2 | 329 |
| NYI | 09 | 116 | 217 | 01 | 3 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:26PHIMatt ReadSHAssists: Sean Couturier, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:26NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 11:30PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Hartnell, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–1
- P2 18:16PHIMatt ReadAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 8:16NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:02NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 3. NYI Thomas Vanek stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares scored
- 6. PHI Matt Read scored
- 7. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
- 8. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:54NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:54PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:03PHIBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:03NYIKyle Okposo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:03PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:50NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:09PHINicklas Grossmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:55PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:24PHIVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:15NYIEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:15PHISteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:50NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:10PHIAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:54PHISteve Downie: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:05
xG 0.92–0.34 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier4:55
xG 0.48–0.12 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Downie3:22
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl4:03
xG 0.01–0.19 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn8:05
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Meszaros2:57
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Meszaros2:07
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Clutterbuck – Bailey8:56
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares10:45
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas5:39
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Grabner – Nelson6:40
xG 0.11–0.86 (12%)attempts 6–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – MacDonald14:38
xG 1.04–0.40 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Carkner – Hickey8:07
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Donovan – de Haan12:57
xG 0.45–0.97 (31%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).