Mon, Jan 20, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 118 | 212 | 19 | 439 |
| DET | 17 | 06 | 010 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Chris Stewart, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 19:33DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:01STLBarret JackmanGWGAssists: Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 2:21STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 2:14STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan Reaves · Snap, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:07DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P1 13:43STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26DETDrew Miller: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:08STLRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 0:46DETTomas Jurco: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05STLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 4:38STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:14DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:22DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:24STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Schwartz10:23
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Stewart – Paajarvi8:48
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Morrow – Cracknell – Reaves8:47
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund8:04
xG 0.06–0.57 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Polak12:47
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:36
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:19
xG 0.80–0.92 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Helm3:25
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Jurco – Glendening2:58
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Tatar – Sheahan3:27
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cleary – Eaves – Glendening4:53
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser12:55
xG 1.18–0.54 (69%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Kindl – Smith2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:12
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).