Mon, Jan 20, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 06 | 019 | 136 |
| NSH | 29 | 111 | 13 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45DALCody EakinPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:35NSHNick SpalingAssists: Roman Josi, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 17:16NSHShea WeberGWGAssists: Eric Nystrom, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:28NSHRoman JosiAssists: Paul Gaustad, Eric Nystrom · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 3:46NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:06NSHDavid Legwand: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 14:21DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:31DALAntoine Roussel: Holding2 min
- P2 16:58DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:58NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:03NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Benn – Seguin6:07
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Chiasson – Eakin3:57
xG 0.40–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Peverley – Roussel – Seguin4:05
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Peverley – Jeffrey6:11
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon11:56
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Rome13:48
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski5:04
xG 0.41–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson9:35
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Clune – Stalberg5:16
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg2:40
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith13:35
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:07
xG 0.84–0.73 (53%)attempts 16–20goals 3–0
- Bartley – Jones13:45
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Klein – Ellis14:25
xG 0.06–0.43 (11%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).