Wed, Jan 22, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 18 | 116 | 332 |
| PHI | 03 | 112 | 19 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 13:38CARNathan GerbeUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 19:25PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Michael Raffl · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 3:00PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 13:50CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.38 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:31PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:20PHIWayne Simmonds: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:57CARAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:47CARRiley Nash: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:04CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:04PHIVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Ruutu – Nash6:06
xG 0.73–0.07 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty11:37
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Gerbe3:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm10:29
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Harrison12:12
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk17:36
xG 0.91–0.38 (71%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Liles16:12
xG 0.54–0.71 (43%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Downie – Giroux – Voracek4:30
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Downie – VandeVelde3:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Read – Couturier11:04
xG 0.61–0.67 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl11:20
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Streit – Meszaros2:03
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann4:15
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:17
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).