Tue, Jan 21, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 113 | 05 | 227 |
| EDM | 06 | 011 | 112 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14VANKellan LainAssists: Dale Weise, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:59VANZack KassianGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 15:00EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:57EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:57VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08VANZac Dalpe: Holding2 min
- P2 0:32EDMRyan Smyth: Interference2 min
- P2 5:35VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:50VANChris Higgins: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:47EDMNick Schultz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:13VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:34EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:42EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSestito – Weise – Lain4:33
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Kesler12:04
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Hansen – Dalpe7:04
xG 0.40–0.28 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian5:04
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Garrison2:42
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev14:47
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Garrison8:50
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hendricks – Gordon8:17
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Perron5:04
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:18
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Gazdic – Arcobello2:45
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Schultz16:31
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin14:19
xG 0.65–0.44 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Schultz – Potter8:45
xG 0.05–0.57 (8%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).