Wed, Jan 22, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 09 | 124 |
| PIT | 29 | 314 | 08 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48PITJussi JokinenAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 16:25PITTaylor PyattPPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 17:40MTLRene BourqueAssists: Daniel Brière, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 5:46PITJussi JokinenAssists: Olli Maatta, James Neal · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:43PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 15:03PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Rob Scuderi, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:44PITChuck Kobasew: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:30MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:41MTLNathan Beaulieu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:27PITBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 10:51MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36MTLFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
- P3 5:27PITMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:50MTLRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50MTLBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50MTLBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:50MTLPeter Budaj: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 14:50PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50PITBrooks Orpik: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:50PITBrooks Orpik: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:50PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Goalie leave crease2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Prust – Bourque8:59
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Moen – Leblanc – Bournival4:33
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Eller9:29
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:04
xG 0.45–0.98 (31%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Beaulieu8:10
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Gorges2:08
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Murray12:13
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal7:27
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Kunitz – Crosby2:48
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Kunitz – Crosby4:44
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter5:26
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta12:03
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Orpik – Martin8:16
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Letang11:05
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).