Thu, Jan 23, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 29 | 211 | 629 |
| NYI | 29 | 07 | 218 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 8:21NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 9:32PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 11:24PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Matt Niskanen · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:35PITOlli MaattaAssists: Chris Kunitz, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 17:44PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, James Neal · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 3:10NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Peter Regin, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 5:59PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 10:55NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Matt Donovan · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–4
- P3 19:56PITBrandon SutterENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:32NYICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P2 2:33PITOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:18NYIMatt Martin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:54PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:44PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:55PITTanner Glass: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal13:40
xG 0.86–0.90 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Kobasew – Kunitz – Crosby10:00
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Glass – Sutter6:28
xG 0.07–1.27 (5%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Maatta12:32
xG 0.71–0.78 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 3–0
- Scuderi – Letang13:13
xG 0.81–1.01 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Orpik – Martin12:42
xG 0.40–0.82 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson8:03
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares16:45
xG 1.58–1.18 (57%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:55
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Regin – Bailey9:48
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hickey10:47
xG 1.25–0.35 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Donovan – de Haan18:30
xG 1.32–0.95 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hickey3:20
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).