Thu, Jan 23, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 06 | 011 | 125 |
| DAL | 211 | 412 | 15 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:39TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 15:47DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:36DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Jamie Benn, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 8:33DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kari Lehtonen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 11:37DALRich PeverleySHAssists: Jamie Benn, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P2 15:23DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Cody Eakin · Slap, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 2:43DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 13:35DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:54TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:02TORColton Orr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44DALAaron Rome: Delaying game2 min
- P2 13:44TORColton Orr: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:10DALRich Peverley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:10TORTim Gleason: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:23TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:43TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:43DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
- P3 11:43DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:43DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:43TORNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kulemin – Kadri7:42
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland9:52
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Ashton2:37
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Ashton6:02
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Gardiner8:01
xG 0.22–0.24 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gleason – Rielly6:51
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Rielly2:10
xG 0.02–0.09 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:16
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 3–1
- Horcoff – Peverley – Chiasson8:58
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt2:14
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Cole – Fiddler7:58
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski13:16
xG 1.05–0.34 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Benn – Dillon14:58
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome15:55
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).