Thu, Jan 23, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 08 | 211 | 226 |
| VAN | 013 | 110 | 011 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:09VANChris HigginsAssists: Dale Weise, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:28NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 12:38NSHNick SpalingPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Matt Cullen · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:26NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:26VANDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:49NSHMatt Cullen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:04NSHPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:16VANDan Hamhuis: Interference2 min
- P2 10:03NSHDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
- P3 8:01VANBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:41VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:17NSHEric Nystrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Spaling – Smith4:15
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Cullen – Nystrom – Bourque5:45
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg2:53
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith6:05
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones12:45
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:19
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Bartley – Ellis9:59
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Dalpe – Kassian2:21
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Richardson – Hansen2:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sestito – Weise – Lain4:41
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian7:46
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev14:37
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:42
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton9:19
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).