Fri, Jan 24, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Washington Capitals 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 014 | 110 | 131 |
| NJD | 111 | 112 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:45NJDAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 10:10WSHJason ChimeraAssists: John Erskine, Tom Wilson · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:31WSHMartin Erat: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:24WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:08NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:41WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58WSHTom Wilson: Charging2 min
- P2 16:51NJDJaromir Jagr: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:53WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:16NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Fehr – Grabovski4:23
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson3:35
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson2:02
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Johansson10:49
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carrick11:23
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson8:23
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Green – Orlov17:28
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Clowe – Henrique8:35
xG 0.53–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac4:02
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Brunner5:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zajac – Whitney5:54
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:19
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky12:33
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).