Sat, Jan 25, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 39 | 07 | 326 |
| CAR | 16 | 416 | 110 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30CARNathan GerbeAssists: Manny Malhotra, Mike Komisarek · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:05CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:37CARManny MalhotraAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 13:23CARRiley NashGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 13:58OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Eric Gryba · Snap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 17:45OTTKyle TurrisSHAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Eric Gryba · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P2 19:27CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 19:37OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 18:19CARManny MalhotraENAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Drayson Bowman · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:26CARRadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:19OTTColin Greening: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21OTTChris Neil: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 4:18CARJohn-Michael Liles: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:18OTTCory Conacher: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:54OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:31CARMike Komisarek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Conacher – Da Costa5:37
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad10:15
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris9:25
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:12
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen19:31
xG 1.23–0.71 (64%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Phillips – Ceci9:25
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 1–2
- Methot – Gryba12:06
xG 0.27–0.53 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty9:33
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Gerbe – Bowman10:28
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Ruutu – Nash7:08
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm11:12
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles11:16
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Komisarek – Harrison11:57
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 2–1
- Sekera – Faulk19:01
xG 0.67–1.18 (36%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).