Fri, Jan 24, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 19 | 06 | 325 |
| FLA | 07 | 09 | 220 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:13COLPaul StastnyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Tanguay · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 13:00COLJamie McGinnGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 5:18FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 18:17FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Tom Gilbert · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:03COLNick Holden: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49FLAShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stastny – Landeskog11:45
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche6:18
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Talbot – MacKinnon12:35
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene10:39
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 5–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Holden14:16
xG 1.10–0.58 (66%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson14:50
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Wilson – Barrie13:43
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Boyes – Bergenheim8:56
xG 0.70–0.22 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Goc – Winchester – Huberdeau8:34
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad4:48
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Goc – Upshall – Huberdeau3:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:16
xG 0.94–0.65 (59%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Campbell – Gudbranson2:46
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:40
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).