Fri, Jan 24, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 315 | 15 | 09 | 429 |
| EDM | 015 | 110 | 214 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:17PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Lauri Korpikoski · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 17:10PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Martin Hanzal, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 18:19PHXDerek MorrisAssists: Jeff Halpern, Rob Klinkhammer · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 3:00PHXMike RibeiroGWGAssists: David Moss, Mike Smith · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–0
- P2 13:17EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Ryan Jones, Boyd Gordon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 1:50EDMDavid PerronAssists: Corey Potter, Martin Marincin · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 7:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:48EDMMatt Hendricks: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:21PHXKyle Chipchura: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:53EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:53EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53PHXKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:24PHXMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:42PHXMike Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:14PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:16PHXKeith Yandle: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Halpern – Chipchura – Klinkhammer5:41
xG 0.26–0.22 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker2:50
xG 0.01–0.00 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss8:19
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker11:40
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Morris – Yandle14:06
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 20–19goals 3–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:05
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Stone12:16
xG 0.09–1.66 (5%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Jones7:26
xG 1.08–0.11 (91%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:29
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Joensuu – Arcobello – Yakupov4:25
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gagner – Perron11:22
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin12:15
xG 1.15–0.55 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Potter – Petry3:35
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Belov2:53
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).