Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
St. Louis Blues 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 110 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 435 |
| NYI | 213 | 113 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01NYIThomas VanekAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 15:11NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Thomas Vanek, Thomas Hickey · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:17STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Maxim Lapierre · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 1:17STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 3:58NYIMatt MartinAssists: Colin McDonald, Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:33STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. NYI Thomas Vanek scored
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. STL Kevin Shattenkirk scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:30STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:43STLBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:43NYIColin McDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:40STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:37STLRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:43NYIKyle Okposo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:35STLMaxim Lapierre: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:16NYIMatt Carkner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:16STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:46NYICalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:44STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Sobotka – Tarasenko12:28
xG 1.05–0.69 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie4:43
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz4:50
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves7:07
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:44
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk10:17
xG 0.80–0.46 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:03
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares10:21
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:20
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson6:11
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Regin – Bailey9:15
xG 0.22–0.43 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Hickey9:42
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Donovan – de Haan13:09
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Hickey – de Haan2:34
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).