Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 6, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 213 | 211 | 633 |
| PHI | 012 | 09 | 15 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:42BOSJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:59BOSReilly SmithUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 13:10BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
- P3 7:55PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 8:21BOSJarome IginlaPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 9:16BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Snap, 0.19 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:07PHINicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:32PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:39BOSJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:42PHIJay Rosehill: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:21PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:21BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:59BOSDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:44BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:11PHINicklas Grossmann: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith8:28
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron7:58
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic11:40
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Paille – Eriksson – Soderberg11:50
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug7:58
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton9:26
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski7:48
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:03
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl9:46
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Hall – Rosehill – VandeVelde6:55
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hartnell – Simmonds2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn13:19
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Streit – Gustafsson3:48
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson2:09
xG 0.01–0.07 (18%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).