Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 415 | 17 | 534 |
| MTL | 03 | 06 | 012 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:46WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 3:05WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Martin Erat, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 6:21WSHJay BeagleAssists: Tom Wilson, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 10:31WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Brooks Laich, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P3 8:38WSHCasey WellmanAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–0
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:49WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:49MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:44WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:34MTLLouis Leblanc: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:46WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:46MTLLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:05MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:31MTLBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:31MTLBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P2 10:31MTLBrandon Prust: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:43WSHEric Fehr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:18MTLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:41WSHBrooks Laich: Holding2 min
- P3 9:15MTLBrian Gionta: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:32MTLBrian Gionta: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson7:07
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer4:52
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Wellman2:31
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle3:05
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson10:06
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carrick10:18
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Green – Orlov9:14
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Leblanc – Bournival2:30
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival5:49
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:55
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Brière – Prust – Bourque4:08
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Beaulieu6:54
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin13:21
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Murray – Gorges2:03
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).