Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 15 | 28 | 522 |
| CBJ | 111 | 013 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21BUFMatt EllisAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Ville Leino · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:53CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Ryan Murray, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:30BUFChristian EhrhoffSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 3:28BUFMarcus FolignoSHGWGAssists: Jamie McBain, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 3:51BUFSteve OttAssists: Cody Hodgson, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–1
- P3 5:21CBJMark LetestuAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Corey Tropp · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 18:09BUFCody HodgsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:20CBJCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:20BUFZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:15BUFTyler Ennis: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:30BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:17BUFMike Weber: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:58CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35BUFTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Hodgson – Girgensons8:59
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Leino3:18
xG 0.13–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Ellis – Moulson – Ennis2:09
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Varone – Flynn9:15
xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ruhwedel13:22
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
- Weber – McBain13:23
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 2–26goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Myers16:17
xG 0.16–1.31 (11%)attempts 8–24goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:26
xG 0.82–0.04 (96%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner10:41
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp6:25
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen11:34
xG 0.79–0.50 (62%)attempts 26–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Murray3:16
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson8:48
xG 0.62–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray7:32
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).