Sat, Jan 25, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 38 | 17 | 01 | 428 |
| WPG | 211 | 212 | 08 | 11 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Evander Kane, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:34WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Ondrej Pavelec · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:13TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:36WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 8:13WPGZach BogosianAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 9:14TORTroy BodieAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 16:44TORTim GleasonAssists: Carter Ashton, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 18:27TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:44WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:15TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:42TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13WPGZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P2 5:18WPGKeaton Ellerby: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55TORCarl Gunnarsson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:55TORTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:32WPGEvander Kane: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:44WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:59WPGDevin Setoguchi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestOrr – McClement – Ashton6:04
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri3:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak13:54
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly13:44
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Gleason – Franson11:32
xG 0.29–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:57
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik12:37
xG 1.25–0.26 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Scheifele12:14
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Thorburn – Peluso – Wright4:46
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba12:32
xG 1.08–0.51 (68%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Pardy – Ellerby6:01
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:34
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).