Sat, Jan 25, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 04 | 08 | 012 | 024 |
| DAL | 110 | 212 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02DALSergei GoncharPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Kari Lehtonen · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:13DALJamie BennPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:20DALRich PeverleyAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:19DALBrenden Dillon: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:48PITOlli Maatta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:14PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:42PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:14DALBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38DALShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:03DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:03PITJames Neal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:19DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Glass – Crosby5:10
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Sutter – Megna5:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Ebbett3:16
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal10:31
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Letang2:13
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin13:47
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Maatta13:03
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt11:44
xG 0.45–0.23 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:49
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Cole – Fiddler8:38
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Peverley – Chiasson7:57
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski16:26
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome11:38
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon15:36
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).