Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 25, 2014·Dodger Stadium, Los AngelesOutdoor game

Anaheim Ducks 3, Los Angeles Kings 0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

LAK winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA270618321
LAK02006010036

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:45ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:12ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Nick Bonino, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P3 18:31ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 13:08LAKColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 13:08ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:49ANABryan Allen: Holding2 min
  4. P2 2:39ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:39LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 3:09LAKSlava Voynov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P2 6:38ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
  8. P2 7:52LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 14:46LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 19:23ANAKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 1:43ANAKyle Palmieri: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
48% to win52% to win
← ANA attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANALAK
21Shots on goal36
2.4Expected goals3.7
34Shot attempts70
31Faceoffs won37
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes13
33Hits38
17Blocked shots2
8Giveaways13
3Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Anaheim Ducks

Forward lines

  1. bestJackman – Winnik – Maroon6:01

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  2. Selanne – Beleskey – Bonino9:24

    xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0

  3. Koivu – Cogliano – Palmieri7:27

    xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Getzlaf – Perry – Penner8:59

    xG 0.24–0.96 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. Beauchemin – Lindholm13:18

    xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0

  2. Lovejoy – Fowler12:14

    xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0

  3. Allen – Fistric11:34

    xG 0.13–0.52 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestCarter – Kopitar – King8:16

    xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0

  2. Kopitar – Lewis – King3:48

    xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0

  3. Richards – Lewis – Frattin3:22

    xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  4. Fraser – Clifford – Nolan4:40

    xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMuzzin – Doughty13:52

    xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0

  2. Regehr – Voynov9:07

    xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0

  3. Mitchell – Martinez4:46

    xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.7 xGANA 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1131 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

LAK winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).