Sun, Jan 26, 2014·Yankee Stadium, BronxOutdoor game
New York Rangers 7, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 411 | 15 | 726 |
| NJD | 310 | 07 | 05 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:07NYRDominic MooreAssists: Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:00NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 16:07NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Mark Fayne · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 16:59NYRMarc StaalAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 2:48NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: John Moore, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 12:44NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 13:53NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–3
- P2 19:31NYRRick NashAssists: Derek Stepan, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–3
- P3 10:06NYRDerek StepanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:01NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:20NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:38NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11NJDMark Fayne: Holding2 min
- P2 6:14NJDMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:06NJDTravis Zajac: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello13:21
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider12:19
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin12:40
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo6:47
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman18:03
xG 0.67–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 4–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:13
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Klein – Moore16:35
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 2–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zajac – Josefson11:58
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter10:28
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Brunner10:39
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique14:49
xG 0.19–0.72 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene13:10
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Salvador – Volchenkov7:12
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Gelinas7:50
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).