Sun, Jan 26, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 011 | 017 | 135 |
| EDM | 28 | 212 | 17 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Jesse Joensuu, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:25NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Nick Spaling, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:48EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:12EDMRyan SmythPPAssists: Corey Potter, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 16:46EDMNail YakupovAssists: Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 15:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:52EDMMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:48NSHTaylor Beck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:26NSHSeth Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49EDMMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:10EDMNail Yakupov: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 14:48NSHRich Clune: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Beck11:22
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque3:34
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith6:19
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Ellis11:15
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Jones14:46
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi17:06
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Perron – Yakupov11:36
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:31
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Jones10:35
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Smyth – Joensuu – Gazdic8:03
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Marincin15:07
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Schultz – Schultz16:58
xG 0.49–0.55 (47%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Potter – Belov13:05
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).