Sun, Jan 26, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 111 | 211 | 111 | 00 | 433 |
| VAN | 27 | 27 | 08 | 13 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31VANKevin BieksaAssists: Chris Higgins, Zac Dalpe · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:15VANJannik HansenAssists: Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 11:33PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: David Moss, Derek Morris · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 9:07PHXAntoine VermetteSHAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Deflected, 0.33 xG2–2
- P2 16:59VANChris HigginsAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:41VANZac DalpeAssists: Jason Garrison, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–4
- P2 19:05PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Shane Doan, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 5:24PHXShane DoanAssists: Mike Ribeiro, David Moss · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 2:15VANKevin BieksaGWGAssists: Brad Richardson, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:05VANJason Garrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:24PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:49PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:02VANDale Weise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:09VANAlexander Edler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:00PHXKyle Chipchura: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:28VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:38VANKellan Lain: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:06VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49PHXDerek Morris: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy10:30
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Boedker3:13
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker8:15
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss8:52
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Stone2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone7:20
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson18:38
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Dalpe – Kassian4:28
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Richardson6:15
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Kesler4:51
xG 0.06–0.03 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Hansen – Weise3:40
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Stanton2:01
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler2:52
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Garrison10:01
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).