Mon, Jan 27, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 6, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 118 | 39 | 210 | 637 |
| NYI | 112 | 217 | 08 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Daniel Paille, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 15:29NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 4:50BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 8:20NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Kyle Okposo, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:21BOSReilly SmithAssists: Shawn Thornton, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 15:08NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 19:27BOSCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 2:17BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 8:12BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:10BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P1 16:41NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00NYIKyle Okposo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:01BOSDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:35BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPaille – Eriksson – Soderberg7:18
xG 1.10–0.45 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith8:41
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic13:25
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron9:05
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski11:43
xG 1.23–0.49 (72%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton9:45
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 3–1
- Bartkowski – Miller3:22
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner4:20
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:58
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Regin – Bailey – Nelson2:42
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson4:10
xG 0.27–0.64 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Strait3:14
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald8:46
xG 1.06–0.97 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
- MacDonald – de Haan3:08
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).