Mon, Jan 27, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 4, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 18 | 13 | 421 |
| DAL | 112 | 219 | 013 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Max Talbot, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:57COLJamie McGinnAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 17:27DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:02DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 17:57COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 18:13DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 4:13COLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:34COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:37DALErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 0:36COLNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:53DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:22DALRay Whitney: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54COLNate Guenin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:22COLPatrick Bordeleau: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene14:09
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche5:04
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog12:39
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon9:37
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Guenin – Benoit13:32
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie13:37
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Hejda – Johnson15:46
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Cole – Fiddler7:21
xG 0.54–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:09
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:37
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Benn – Seguin2:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon13:45
xG 1.03–0.23 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Rome13:07
xG 0.48–0.38 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Daley2:04
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).