Tue, Jan 28, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 2, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 112 | 110 | 230 |
| BOS | 219 | 210 | 212 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41BOSMilan LucicAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:26BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 1:46BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–3
- P2 14:54BOSReilly SmithPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 19:27FLABrad BoyesAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 4:00FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 8:14BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Gregory Campbell · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 17:51BOSDavid KrejciUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:07FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:22FLASean Bergenheim: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:35BOSShawn Thornton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:18FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:56FLATim Thomas: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad8:47
xG 0.71–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Hayes – Shore3:14
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Hayes – Shore5:46
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Goc – Winchester – Huberdeau9:37
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Olsen2:09
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Weaver – Kulikov14:48
xG 0.62–0.79 (44%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Olsen9:53
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic11:53
xG 1.48–0.34 (82%)attempts 20–9goals 4–0
- Paille – Eriksson – Soderberg6:34
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – Kelly – Campbell6:51
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:03
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski17:24
xG 1.44–0.56 (72%)attempts 24–16goals 3–1
- Chara – Hamilton14:26
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug12:14
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).