Tue, Jan 28, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 0, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 010 | 016 | 033 |
| PHI | 18 | 212 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42PHIScott HartnellPPGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:08PHIScott HartnellAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 11:02PHIAdam HallAssists: Michael Raffl, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 10:22PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 16:09PHISean CouturierAssists: Mark Streit · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:18DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:05PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05DETBrian Lashoff: Diving2 min
- P1 16:44PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P1 16:44DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:28PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P2 13:53PHIChris VandeVelde: Holding2 min
- P3 1:47PHINicklas Grossmann: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:38PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:42DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Glendening8:27
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Jurco2:55
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan3:40
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Andersson – Nyquist7:21
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:00
xG 0.93–0.82 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Lashoff11:42
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:38
xG 0.45–0.84 (35%)attempts 21–10goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek9:37
xG 1.18–0.20 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn12:31
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – Raffl6:22
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:26
xG 0.36–0.90 (29%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann11:37
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson12:19
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Streit – Coburn5:56
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).