Tue, Jan 28, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 213 | 216 | 05 | 11 | 535 |
| BUF | 110 | 24 | 113 | 00 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Green, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:45BUFChristian EhrhoffAssists: Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 1:41BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:09WSHMike GreenAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jay Beagle · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 11:11BUFPhil VaroneAssists: Marcus Foligno, Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 16:57WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Martin Erat, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 6:48BUFCody HodgsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 1:00WSHMike GreenGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:18BUFMatt Ellis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:52WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:41BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 15:14BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:53WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson6:28
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer11:30
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle3:30
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Wellman6:13
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov19:58
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson17:08
xG 0.64–0.86 (43%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Erskine – Carrick13:18
xG 0.46–0.91 (34%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:18
xG 1.09–0.76 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Ott – Leino – Hodgson12:30
xG 0.44–0.25 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Varone – Flynn12:37
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott4:56
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Ruhwedel15:33
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Tallinder – Sulzer15:26
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel2:37
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).