Wed, Jan 29, 2014·Yankee Stadium, BronxOutdoor game
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 114 | 114 | 234 |
| NYI | 010 | 115 | 06 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:33NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Matt Donovan, Cal Clutterbuck · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 19:13NYRBenoit PouliotAssists: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 4:36NYRDaniel CarcilloGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:24NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:57NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P2 10:11NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:11NYRRick Nash: Diving2 min
- P2 12:59NYRDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:23NYIThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:57NYRBrian Boyle: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Boyle – Carcillo4:40
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:32
xG 0.59–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello5:41
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin6:49
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Stralman11:41
xG 1.08–0.18 (86%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh10:27
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore8:18
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas6:10
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Regin – Bailey6:27
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares9:18
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson5:11
xG 0.08–0.69 (10%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Donovan – de Haan8:11
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey7:25
xG 0.00–0.75 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Strait – MacDonald12:28
xG 0.30–1.10 (22%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).