Wed, Jan 29, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 020 | 022 | 017 | 059 |
| EDM | 17 | 09 | 211 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51EDMJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Nick Schultz, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 6:10EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 18:40EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:53EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:32EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:17EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:17SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:24SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:54EDMMartin Marincin: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54SJSBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:02EDMAnton Belov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:51SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Wingels5:41
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Marleau – Wingels – Nieto5:51
xG 0.63–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Kearns – Nieto3:03
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Kearns – Hayes2:03
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers9:47
xG 1.29–0.15 (90%)attempts 21–4goals 0–1
- Hannan – Boyle9:06
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Stuart – Braun8:51
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 17–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Gordon – Jones3:02
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Jones2:50
xG 0.02–0.18 (11%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Joensuu – Gazdic4:23
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – Jones – Perron4:09
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Larsen6:57
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Belov7:00
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Larsen – Belov7:34
xG 0.19–0.70 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).