Thu, Jan 30, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 27 | 012 | 433 |
| BOS | 113 | 012 | 010 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Andrei Markov, Daniel Brière · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:32MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 15:38BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Loui Eriksson, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:54MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 13:46MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:18BOSBrad Marchand: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:12MTLRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P2 11:43MTLDavid Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:43BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:40MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:26MTLLars Eller: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:56BOSDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:17BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Bourque – Eller5:38
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:12
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Brière – Parros – Prust2:30
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bournival13:13
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Beaulieu9:20
xG 1.36–0.08 (95%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban14:02
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin18:28
xG 0.73–1.28 (36%)attempts 16–25goals 2–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith13:51
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:08
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille4:43
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg7:37
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski7:05
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Krug9:56
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Miller – Krug2:07
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).