Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 015 | 112 | 338 |
| TOR | 19 | 212 | 311 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39FLANick BjugstadAssists: Scottie Upshall, Drew Shore · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:50FLASean BergenheimAssists: Brad Boyes, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 16:49TORCody FransonAssists: Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 0:27TORMason RaymondAssists: Troy Bodie, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 0:58TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 4:00TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 6:22TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 14:29FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Marcel Goc · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 18:37TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.16 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:05TORTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:51TORTim Gleason: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:49FLAScott Gomez: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:53TORTroy Bodie: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41FLAScott Gomez: Holding2 min
- P3 1:16TORDion Phaneuf: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:27FLABrian Campbell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14TORJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P3 19:41FLATom Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41TORPeter Holland: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Boyes – Bergenheim11:41
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Barch – Kopecky – Matthias6:03
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Upshall – Shore – Bjugstad7:42
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Goc – Winchester – Huberdeau9:39
xG 0.68–0.96 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:04
xG 1.43–0.40 (78%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Weaver – Kulikov11:43
xG 1.09–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:56
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kulemin – Kadri9:30
xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland9:57
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Orr – McClement – Ashton3:32
xG 0.09–0.64 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:56
xG 0.61–1.43 (30%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Rielly11:21
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Gleason – Franson5:11
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly3:19
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).