Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 15 | 120 | 232 |
| CBJ | 25 | 217 | 17 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18CBJDerek MacKenzieSHAssists: R.J. Umberger, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:56CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Boone Jenner, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 0:24CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Ryan Murray · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 12:14CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Jack Johnson, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 18:19WSHJoel WardSHAssists: John Carlson, Braden Holtby · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 3:18WSHEric FehrAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 4:22CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:41CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:19WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:19CBJNick Foligno: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:19CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:19CBJNick Foligno: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 18:55CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:00WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:10WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:48WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:15CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P2 19:44WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
- P3 3:25WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:25CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:12CBJJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:55CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:09WSHJohn Erskine: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:40CBJCorey Tropp: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Laich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer2:21
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson7:17
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson6:07
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Alzner – Orlov3:06
xG 0.01–0.01 (39%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Erskine – Carrick8:43
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson7:07
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Anisimov5:14
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Horton – Johansen – Jenner6:34
xG 0.13–0.15 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp5:14
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson8:28
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
- Wisniewski – Murray10:17
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Nikitin2:27
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).