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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Ottawa Senators 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:49Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  3. P1 0:55Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 1:33Shot by Barberio, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 1:49Goal by Methot (Zibanejad, Spezza)+19 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Gryba, Zibanejad · TBL Brewer, Filppula, Barberio, Kucherov, Brown

  6. P1 2:34Hedman: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Spezza, Condra, Wiercioch, Conacher, Ceci · TBL Cote, Crombeen, Thompson, Killorn, Hedman

  7. P1 3:04Shot by Spezza, saved by Lindback5v4
  8. P1 3:14Shot by Turris, saved by Lindback5v4
  9. P1 3:37Shot by Ryan, saved by Lindback5v4
  10. P1 4:02Shot by Karlsson, saved by Lindback5v4
  11. P1 6:41Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Lindback
  12. P1 7:57Ceci: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Greening, Condra, Wiercioch, Da Costa, Ceci · TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Malone, Barberio, Johnson

  13. P1 8:01Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson4v5
  14. P1 9:17Shot by Condra, saved by Lindback4v5
  15. P1 11:58Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  16. P1 13:17Shot by Methot, saved by Lindback
  17. P1 13:18Shot by Condra, saved by Lindback
  18. P1 14:36Shot by Purcell, saved by Anderson
  19. P1 16:20Shot by Gudas, saved by Anderson
  20. P1 18:33Shot by Condra, saved by Lindback
  21. P1 19:06Shot by Cowen, saved by Lindback
  22. P1 19:34Goal by Karlsson (Spezza, Michalek)+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Spezza, Michalek, Methot, Karlsson, Zibanejad · TBL Salo, St. Louis, Johnson, Hedman, Palat

  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:23Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson
  26. P2 1:02Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  27. P2 2:08Shot by Turris, saved by Lindback
  28. P2 2:25Shot by Conacher, saved by Lindback
  29. P2 2:36Shot by Condra, saved by Lindback
  30. P2 3:10Goal by Killorn (Kucherov, Hedman)+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Cowen, Zibanejad · TBL Salo, Killorn, Hedman, Kucherov, Brown

  31. P2 4:08Shot by Carle, saved by Anderson
  32. P2 4:24Shot by Karlsson, saved by Lindback
  33. P2 5:57Shot by Conacher, saved by Lindback
  34. P2 6:25Goal by Smith, unassisted+14 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Cowen · TBL St. Louis, Carle, Johnson, Gudas, Palat

  35. P2 10:07Shot by Johnson, saved by Anderson
  36. P2 10:55Shot by Spezza, saved by Lindback
  37. P2 12:12Shot by Gryba, saved by Lindback
  38. P2 15:13Shot by Carle, saved by Anderson
  39. P2 15:34Shot by Smith, saved by Lindback
  40. P2 16:03Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 18:40Goal by Turris (Ryan)+6 pts WP

    On ice: OTT MacArthur, Methot, Ryan, Gryba, Turris · TBL St. Louis, Killorn, Barberio, Hedman, Kucherov

  42. P2 19:00Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  43. P2 0:00Period end
  44. P3 0:00Period start
  45. P3 0:47Shot by Barberio, saved by Anderson
  46. P3 1:08Shot by St. Louis, saved by Anderson
  47. P3 1:41Shot by Carle, saved by Anderson
  48. P3 2:42Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  49. P3 2:52Shot by Spezza, saved by Lindback
  50. P3 3:04Shot by Thompson, saved by Anderson
  51. P3 4:00Shot by Condra, saved by Lindback
  52. P3 4:30Shot by Ryan, saved by Lindback
  53. P3 4:35Ryan: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: OTT MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson, Cowen · TBL Brewer, Purcell, Killorn, Gudas, Kucherov

  54. P3 6:00Shot by Carle, saved by Anderson4v5
  55. P3 6:39Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson
  56. P3 6:55Goal by Ryan (Turris, MacArthur)+1 pts WP

    On ice: OTT MacArthur, Methot, Ryan, Gryba, Turris · TBL Malone, Carle, Killorn, Gudas, Palat

  57. P3 8:34Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson
  58. P3 9:25Shot by Salo, saved by Anderson
  59. P3 10:02Shot by Carle, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 11:53Barberio: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Neil, Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Cowen, Zibanejad · TBL Malone, Carle, Crombeen, Thompson, Barberio

  61. P3 12:54Goal by Johnson (Palat)5v40 pts WP

    On ice: OTT MacArthur, Ryan, Turris, Karlsson, Wiercioch · TBL Carle, Johnson, Gudas, Palat

  62. P3 13:39Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Lindback5v4
  63. P3 14:06Shot by Da Costa, saved by Lindback
  64. P3 14:22Shot by Palat, saved by Anderson
  65. P3 14:58Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson
  66. P3 16:09Shot by Brewer, saved by Anderson
  67. P3 17:08Goal by Hedman (St. Louis, Palat)5v6+1 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Neil, Greening, Smith, Karlsson, Cowen · TBL Salo, St. Louis, Purcell, Johnson, Hedman, Palat

  68. P3 17:20Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson5v6
  69. P3 17:21Shot by Kucherov, saved by Anderson5v6
  70. P3 17:49Shot by St. Louis, saved by Anderson5v6
  71. P3 18:14Shot by Barberio, saved by Anderson5v6
  72. P3 19:23Shot by St. Louis, saved by Anderson5v6
  73. P3 19:36Shot by Malone, saved by Anderson5v6
  74. P3 19:46Shot by Purcell, saved by Anderson5v6
  75. P3 19:52Shot by Hedman, saved by Anderson5v6
  76. P3 0:00Period end
  77. P3 0:00Final