Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 09 | 211 | 330 |
| ANA | 25 | 112 | 211 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 14:35PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:24ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:29ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 5:48PHIMatt ReadAssists: Mark Streit, Sean Couturier · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 12:26ANADaniel WinnikSHGWGAssists: Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:36ANASaku KoivuENAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
- P3 19:50PHIMichael RafflAssists: Luke Schenn, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:38ANAMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P1 12:38ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27ANAMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:22PHISteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:22ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:11PHISteve Downie: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier3:48
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl3:48
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek13:53
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier5:51
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gustafsson2:21
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Coburn – Gustafsson2:33
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:24
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Maroon8:14
xG 0.96–0.11 (90%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano10:03
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Palmieri2:37
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner9:56
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm12:08
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 3–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler12:35
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Fistric – Sbisa17:49
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).