Fri, Jan 31, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 119 | 08 | 139 |
| NYR | 114 | 06 | 317 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 14:28NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 12:14NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 14:59NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Ryan Callahan, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 19:59NYRRyan McDonaghENAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:58NYRDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 3:26NYIAndrew MacDonald: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:23NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:55NYIThomas Hickey: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:31NYRBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:27NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:06NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:51NYRBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Regin – Bailey8:49
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson6:39
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:44
xG 0.09–0.58 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares15:02
xG 0.82–2.04 (29%)attempts 16–31goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – de Haan14:16
xG 1.11–0.64 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Strait – MacDonald14:24
xG 0.57–1.30 (30%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:22
xG 0.05–1.27 (4%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Kreider11:31
xG 2.18–0.83 (72%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello8:50
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Carcillo5:03
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Richards – Callahan – Hagelin13:06
xG 0.30–0.79 (28%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh13:03
xG 2.08–0.39 (84%)attempts 26–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Stralman13:49
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Klein – Moore9:47
xG 0.62–0.84 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).