Fri, Jan 31, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 08 | 214 | 02 | 0 | 329 |
| DET | 022 | 29 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 2:09DETDrew MillerAssists: Luke Glendening, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:21DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Riley Sheahan · Slap, 0.00 xG1–2
- P3 8:09WSHCasey WellmanAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tyson Strachan · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 10:15DETGustav NyquistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:53WSHJoel WardAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 2. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 3. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 5. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 7. DET Darren Helm stopped
- 8. WSH Casey Wellman stopped
- 9. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 10. WSH Troy Brouwer stopped
- 11. DET Riley Sheahan stopped
- 12. WSH Martin Erat stopped
- 13. DET Patrick Eaves scored
- 14. WSH Jay Beagle stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:18WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:47WSHDmitry Orlov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:18DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:56WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:13WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:31DETTomas Jurco: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Laich2:03
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Erat – Laich – Brouwer2:26
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fehr – Wellman – Wilson4:24
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson9:04
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Orlov11:20
xG 0.95–0.38 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Erskine – Carrick9:45
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Carlson – Orlov2:26
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:35
xG 0.83–0.64 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Eaves – Miller – Glendening6:16
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco7:48
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Helm – Andersson9:39
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith12:58
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:29
xG 0.67–0.79 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:19
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).