Fri, Jan 31, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 110 | 19 | 326 |
| WPG | 215 | 113 | 16 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02WPGZach BogosianAssists: Toby Enstrom, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:07WPGDevin SetoguchiAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 10:27VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 4:48VANRyan KeslerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 6:41WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 11:50VANJason GarrisonAssists: Ryan Stanton, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 17:04WPGDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:19WPGChris Thorburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40VANKellan Lain: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:29WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:22VANDavid Booth: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:04VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Dalpe – Schroeder3:45
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Sedin – Kesler – Kassian12:53
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Richardson – Booth – Hansen4:23
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dalpe – Weise – Lain2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison3:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Stanton10:50
xG 0.24–0.13 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Edler – Corrado3:57
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik15:51
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–13goals 2–2
- Tangradi – Peluso – Wright3:14
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Wheeler – Scheifele12:12
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba12:54
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian17:00
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 13–18goals 2–2
- Pardy – Ellerby5:02
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).