Sat, Feb 1, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 0, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 02 | 010 | 010 | 022 |
| BOS | 09 | 113 | 319 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:06BOSDavid KrejciPPGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 6:43BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Zdeno Chara, Carl Soderberg · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 13:05BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Chris Kelly, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 15:42BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:20BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:20EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:15BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:30EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:08EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:08EDMJeff Petry: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:08BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:26EDMBen Scrivens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:00BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P2 15:03BOSChris Kelly: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:44EDMJordan Eberle: Interference2 min
- P3 8:52BOSMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:40EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Hemsky – Gordon7:45
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic2:08
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:42
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Yakupov7:13
xG 0.04–0.73 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Marincin2:38
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ference – Fraser8:06
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin11:37
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic11:40
xG 1.16–0.33 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:29
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg8:45
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:13
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski11:46
xG 1.20–0.21 (85%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton13:55
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Krug2:11
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).