Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 115 | 014 | 136 |
| CBJ | 213 | 110 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:02CBJRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Boone Jenner, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 7:41FLABrad BoyesAssists: Brian Campbell, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:46CBJNick FolignoAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 9:28CBJMark LetestuAssists: Corey Tropp, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:16FLAScottie Upshall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:16CBJJames Wisniewski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:43CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32CBJBoone Jenner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:47FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:04CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Winchester – Bjugstad8:27
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov12:03
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Matthias – Hayes – Huberdeau9:24
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Huberdeau2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert16:08
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 22–9goals 1–2
- Kulikov – Gudbranson3:35
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov13:54
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Johansen – Jenner11:04
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp7:06
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:59
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Anisimov10:53
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Savard14:23
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 13–20goals 2–1
- Wisniewski – Murray16:39
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson15:09
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).